The consumer confidence index fell to 46.6 in July from 49.3 in June. Economists had expected a slight decrease to 49. The index was benchmarked at 100 in 1985, a year chosen because it was neither a peak nor a trough in consumer confidence. Orders for durable goods — items expected to last three or more years — fell 2.5% in June, the first decrease in three months. Economists had anticipated orders for durable goods would fall 0.6%. However, excluding automobiles and aircraft, durable goods actually rose a robust 1.1%, a much better performance than the flat reading economists had expected. 

Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 25,000 to 584,000 in the week ending July 25. The figure was higher than the 575,000 that economists had forecast. The number of people continuing to claim jobless benefits in the week ending July 18 decreased by 54,000 to 6.197 million, the lowest level since April. The Commerce Department announced that gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services produced in the U.S. — decreased at an annual rate of 1% in the second quarter of 2009. This follows a 6.4% decline in the first quarter of 2009. Economists had expected a slightly larger 1.5% decrease.

Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on construction spending on August 3, pending home sales on August 4 and factory orders on August 5.

With 2008 in the rearview mirror, it’s a good time to look back, as well as look forward, at the real estate industry.

• Approximately 100,000 real estate agents left NAR between the third quarter of 2007 and the third quarter of 2008. In the third quarter 2007, NAR’s membership was 1,338,001.
   
• NAR forecasts existing home sales totaling 4.96 million in 2008, rising to 5.19 million in 2009 and 5.55 million in 2010. NAR forecasts new-home sales at 486,000 in 2008, declining to 393,000 in 2009 and rising to 446,000 in 2010.
   
• Housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably total 934,000 units in 2008, easing to 731,000 next year before increasing to 772,000 in 2010, according to a NAR report. Residential construction spending is down 23.4% from a year ago.
   
• In December, the Fed cut its key interest rate to a range of zero to 0.25%. This brings the interest rate that banks charge each other to the lowest level on record.
   
• Record low interest rates drove demand for home loans to its highest level in more than five years. On the week ending January 9, 2009, the seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, for purchasing and refinancing, increased 15.8% to 1,324.8. That’s the highest reading since the week ending July 11, 2003, when it reached 1,358.2.
   
• For all the renewed interest in refinancing, about 12 million households, or 15% of owners of single-family homes, are not eligible. Their mortgages exceed the value of their home.
   
• In the third quarter of 2008, the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index fell 16.6% from the same period in 2007. That eclipsed the previous record of 15.1%, set during the second quarter of 2008.
   
• In December, the largest monthly drop in asking prices occurred in Las Vegas with a 3.6% decline, while Salt Lake City was up 1.0% for the month of December and Houston was up 3.1% during the fourth quarter. Nationwide, Charlotte, Dallas and Houston were the only markets showing price stability during the fourth quarter of 2008.
   
• At the end of 2008, U.S. foreclosure activity had jumped 81% from 2007 and 225% from 2006. According to a RealtyTrac report, a total of 3,157,806 foreclosure filings — default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions — were reported on 2,330,483 properties. The report also showed that 1.84% of all U.S. housing units (one in 54) received at least one foreclosure filing during the year, up from 1.03% in 2007.
   
• NAR is actively pursuing legislation to restore the housing sector. The bill, H.R. 384, aka the TARP Reform and Accountability Act, would enact a mortgage buy-down program to reduce interest rates, increase foreclosure prevention and mitigation efforts, and provide needed liquidity to the residential mortgage markets to ensure that financing is available. “It is imperative to get TARP back on track by targeting funds for mortgage relief, which will help lower mortgage rates and reduce foreclosures,” said NAR President Charles McMillan.

In East Hampton Town, sales were down nearly 40 percent for the year and dollars spent were down 46 percent. Comparing fourth quarter to fourth quarter, East Hampton’s market suffered a nearly 32-percent loss in sales volume and 47-percent loss in the amount of money spent purchasing single-family homes.

Sales prices fell, too, but not quite as precipitously. In Southampton Town, the median price of a home fell 13.5 percent to just under $800,000, still above the $762,000 median price posted in 2006. The median price is the price at which there are an equal number of homes sold at higher and lower prices. In East Hampton, the median price dipped below $1 million, falling 9.5 percent to $995,000. Throughout the rest of the East End, prices fell by percentages in the single digits, except in Shelter Island, where the median price actually rose by 1.3 percent to $962,500.

The median price for the region slipped 12.6 percent from $740,000 to $650,000. The latest figure is much closer to the 2006 median, which was $660,000.

Suffolk Research Service Inc. is a real estate software and research company based in Hampton Bays.

Portions of this article appeared in The Southampton Press,January 16th,2009

Next item is Summer Rentals…This summer is looking very promising right now.We have already rented some Oceanfront homes that are in the most desirable luxury locations in the Hampton’s Now.Inventory is right for the choosing, many elegant and private homes,with all the amenities,are available at extremely good prices,so get out here to take advantage of the Summer rentals for 2009. Live the Hampton’s Lifestyle…By the week, or two, or three, or the Entire Summer Season!

Investment Properties in  “The Hampton’s” need to be a top priority for all investors for some amazing deals.The inventory of Fine Homes in the Hampton’s is ripe for the savvy investor. There are some “Deals”that are available on high-end properties,due to the economic situation that has been created by Wall Street and the Federal Government. The Time to Buy Is Now ! Many Exclusive opportunities to Purchase your Dream Home!

I want to take this opportunity to thank all the wonderful people who have assisted me to make 2008 a Great year!

My wishes to all: Happy,Healthy,and a Prosperous New Year!

My Warmest Regards,

Richard Rawdin

There are many interesting happenings in “The Hamptons” New York. Hamptons Real Estate Now is your one call “Source for everything imaginable”.

1.This is The Best Buying Opportunity in Twelve Years.Anything of value exists in limited quantities,and with mortgage rates at there lowest point in 30 years, I will find that special property you have dreamed about owning. Inventory is available in all price ranges. Whether you are looking to purchase a small Cottage , or an Oceanfront Mansion, I have the property to fulfill your dreams. Pricing is in favor of all buyers, and my job is to negotiate the best deal for your purchase. My promise is to make the transaction a seamless transition for you, offering a full range of concierge services. No stone is un-turned when I assist you in your search for “the perfect home in the Hamptons.

2.Rentals….This coming Summer 2009 is poised to be the strongest rental season in recent history. I will find you that “perfect summer hide-a-way”. All price ranges are available for : for a week, a weekend, a month,two months, or the entire Memorial Day through Labor Day Season.I will find you the Best summer retreat for your budget !

Lets start with the Real Estate market as a whole; I closed on a home in Hampton Bays on Wednesday,December 9th for $ 655,ooo. A beautiful Post Modern built in 2006.I am also in negotiations for purchase on one of my Exclusive Listings in Shinnecock Hills.There is plenty of activity with Buyers,Sellers and Investors in the Real Estate Market.New Construction has slowed a bit, and there are some really good buys for the Savvy Investor. 

As usual,All East End Towns and Villages are dressed up beautifully for the Holidays.The Chritmas Spirit is everywhere,on Main Streets and all around town.This is a very Festive time for the Hamptons in the winter.

Sarah Jessica Parker is looking for  new locations to sell Bitten,her affordable clothing line, in and about the Hamptons.As rumor has it,AROD and MADONNA are looking for a new Home in the Hamptons as I write this note.

Those Horrible Billboards that were erected on County Road 39 to warn motorists to Slow Down,are going to be Removed in early 2009,thank goodness,they are terribly offensive to most of us who actually live here,not to mention what the visitors thought about these eyesore’s.Well that’s about it for my first try at this blogging thing.I promise to make each blog better and better.I wish you all a Happy and Healthy Holiday Season.

All My Best Wishes,

Rich Rawdin,Realtor

Visit My Hamptons Real Estate Website to search Thousands of Homes for Sale in the Hamptons